According to StrategyOne's recent Beltway Barometer survey of DC's elite, the question Washington elites are pondering is not IF Democrats will lose seats in the House, but HOW MANY seats they will lose.
The survey, conducted January 14-17, 2010, finds Republicans and Democrats at odds on how many seats Democrats will lose.
So what are the DC insiders thinking?
Both parties think Democrats will lose seats in 2010, and only 7% of Democratic elites think Nancy Pelosi will maintain (5%) or increase (2%) her seat margin in the House.
Elite Republicans in Washington generally expect to see their party gain between 20 and 39 seats in November. In fact, 56% of elite Republicans expect Democrats to lose between 20 and 39 seats, and 25% of elite Republicans expect Democrats to lose 40 or more seats and with this their majority.
At this stage the majority of elite Democrats in Washington expect to keep the losses under 20 seats. Specifically, 62% believe Democrats will lose fewer than 20 seats and 28% believe Democrats will lose between 20 and 39 seats. Only 2% of elite Beltway Democrats currently think that Democrats will lose the House majority in November. This sentiment may change depending on the election results in Massachusetts today.
StrategyOne will be tracking elite DC opinion on the 2010 elections and reporting this data first to our clients and then to the media.
The warning signs are clearly present for Democrats at this point, and although wild card events could easily change the arc of the 2010 election season, the trend is certainly beginning to suggest a Republican wave.
Question Text & Data:
Now, looking ahead to the 2010 elections to the House of Representatives... As you know, Democrats control the House of Representatives with a 40 seat majority at the present time. Which ONE of the following do you think will happen in the 2010 elections?
Democrats will increase their number of seats in the House
DEM: 2%
GOP: 1%
Democrats will maintain their current number of seats in the House
DEM:5%
GOP:1%
Democrats will lose fewer than 20 seats, but maintain their majority
DEM62%
GOP:16%
Democrats will lose between 20 and 39 seats, but maintain their majority
DEM:28%
GOP:56%
Democrats will lose 40 or more seats and lose their majority
DEM:2%
GOP:25%
Unsure/Refused
DEM:2%
GOP:3%
Survey Methodology:
StrategyOne conducted 400 telephone interviews among 200 Republicans and 200 Democrats. The overall margin of sampling error for the total N of 400 is +/-4.9%. The margin of error for the N of 200 per party is +/-6.9%. Interviews were conducted January 14-17, 2010. The full (crosstab) results can be found here. For more information on the Beltway Barometer, please visit www.beltwaybarometer.com.